Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcae5…205c crypto 498 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-6%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%189W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$172
other 8% +$32
sports 2% +$8
politics 2% +$6
culture 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.6% -19.1% 42% 37% +9.2%
≤30d 21 -19.1% -26.8% 38% 33% +7.1%
≤90d 427 -25.5% -32.6% 34% 32% -25.4%
all 498 -14.2% -22.3% 38% 36% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 36% -18.6%
10% -29.8% 33% -26.4%
15% -36.6% 29% -33.5%
20% -42.8% 24% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses189 / 309
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)498 / 498
History coverage182d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 498 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$12 +225%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 15 $9 +$21 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 15 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 15 $0 $0 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 15 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 15 $0 +$1 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 15 $0 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 15 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $8 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1174 history records