Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CA 0xcae6…8c6d politics 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$23
other 43% −$18
sports 5% −$7
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 +2.8% -7.0% 6% 4% -9.6%
all 121 +1.0% -8.6% 7% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage114d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $303 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $240 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $252 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $727 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $255 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $264 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 06 $493 −$4 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $276 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $229 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $204 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $231 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $241 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $425 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $239 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $221 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $293 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $201 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $459 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $282 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $226 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $284 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $32 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 12d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $256 24d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $256 25d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $240 25d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $240 25d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $283 26d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $283 26d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $228 27d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $228 27d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $229 27d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $229 28d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $252 28d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $252 28d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $256 28d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $256 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 382 history records