Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xcae6…6a5e sports 675 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,204 (-1%) realized −$1,205 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%418W / 254L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$708est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days−$1,234
14 days−$3,634
30 days−$3,335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,790
other 7% +$42
finance 0% −$14
world 0% −$19
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -23.0% -30.3% 42% 35% -30.8%
≤30d 158 -10.3% -18.8% 54% 46% -31.3%
≤90d 672 +2.2% -7.5% 62% 47% -11.1%
all 672 +2.2% -7.5% 62% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 47% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 28% -19.6%
15% -24.4% 16% -27.4%
20% -31.8% 9% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$53 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$1,205
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses418 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$708
Open positions2
Markets (closed)672 / 675
History coverage86d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 672 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$8 +25%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$20 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $141 +$30 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $97 +$47 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$6 -6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $115 +$5 +4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $89 +$27 +30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$33 -79%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $130 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $50 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $48 −$40 -82%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $159 −$49 -31%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $70 −$12 -17%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$51 +84%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 −$41 -37%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $48 +$5 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$2 -11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $121 −$26 -21%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $71 +$25 +35%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $91 +$29 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$11 -53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $71 +$11 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $164 −$48 -30%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -6%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$10 +34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $131 −$13 -10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q Jun 14 $200 −$55 -28%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $269 −$115 -43%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $44 −$38 -86%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$35 -49%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $131 −$87 -66%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 14 $151 −$151 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $83 −$41 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 90¢ $38 6m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $35 11h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 82¢ $30 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $141 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $97 34h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $95 34h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $120 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $115 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $116 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 76¢ $89 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 90¢ $80 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 89¢ $13 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 56¢ $39 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 79¢ $26 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 64¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 84¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 66¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 82¢ $47 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 86¢ $50 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 14¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 75¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.30 · official $18.30 (match) · 1982 history records