Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcae7…f4cd sports 203 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (215 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60 (-2%) realized −$57 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%88W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day215.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$166
other 15% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (215 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 39% -15.8%
≤30d 189 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 39% -15.8%
≤90d 189 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 39% -15.8%
all 189 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 39% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 39% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 31% -23.9%
15% -30.2% 26% -31.2%
20% -37.0% 20% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses88 / 101
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions14
Markets (closed)189 / 203
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day215.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 68¢ 72¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 38¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 91¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 62¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 85¢ 83¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? No 76¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 41¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Portugal leading at halftime? No 44¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +69%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +92%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$2 +151%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$7 +236%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +151%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +59%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 +19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 +$11 +18%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $61 +$64 +106%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 +$3 +24%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$8 -57%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $100 −$91 -91%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $80 +$13 +16%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $25 −$24 -94%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $23 −$16 -71%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$5 -89%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $55 −$4 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $7 +$8 +107%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $12 +$22 +179%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$3 -40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 15 $36 −$4 -10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 15 $32 +$34 +108%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $11 +$4 +34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 $0 +2%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 92¢ $70 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $92 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 62¢ $51 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 62¢ $19 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 100¢ $5 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 84¢ $11 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 62¢ $11 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $4 2d
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 2d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) SELL Texas Rangers 100¢ $1 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $35 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 10¢ $5 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 93¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.21 · official $53.21 (match) · 988 history records