Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcae8…0723 crypto 190 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (264 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate75%141W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day264.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$33
other 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (264 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -5.2% -14.3% 75% 53% -7.8%
≤30d 189 -5.2% -14.3% 75% 53% -7.8%
≤90d 189 -5.2% -14.3% 75% 53% -7.8%
all 189 -5.2% -14.3% 75% 53% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover264.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 53% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 28% -16.6%
15% -30.0% 14% -24.7%
20% -36.8% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses141 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)189 / 190
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day264.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 99¢ 98¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$3 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$4 +39%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$51 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $30 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $29 +$3 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$3 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$2 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $4 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +59%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 -4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$1 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $28 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $28 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $29 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.52 · official $20.20 · 454 history records