Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcaea…5795 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate47%33W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$149
14 days+$142
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$68
sports 35% +$10
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +12.2% +1.5% 54% 46% +3.2%
≤30d 36 -4.7% -13.7% 42% 25% -5.6%
≤90d 70 -9.0% -17.6% 47% 23% -10.9%
all 70 -9.0% -17.6% 47% 23% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 23% -10.9%
10% -25.5% 13% -19.4%
15% -32.7% 13% -27.2%
20% -39.3% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses33 / 37
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage35d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $179 +$21 +12%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $120 +$59 +49%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $53 −$52 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $188 −$19 -10%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $84 +$16 +19%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$38 +37%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 −$15 -7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$120 +296%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $26 −$2 -8%
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 3.5 May 28 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $5 −$1 -14%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Fluminense FC vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5 May 28 $15 −$1 -7%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $26 −$4 -15%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 3.5 May 27 $61 $0 +0%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $76 −$2 -3%
Will Club Libertad win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $65 −$24 -36%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $80 +$1 +1%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $49 −$5 -10%
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $59 −$11 -18%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $204 −$32 -16%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 +$2 +88%
Will Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC end in a draw? May 23 $76 +$70 +92%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $82 +$5 +6%
Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 21 $6 $0 -1%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $94 +$7 +7%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $65 +$30 +46%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 20 $101 −$6 -6%
Will Zamalek SC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $75 +$9 +12%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $21 −$6 -30%
Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5 May 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $27 −$16 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 40¢ $200 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $102 1h
United States to win the second half? SELL No 99¢ $113 24h
United States to win the second half? SELL No 99¢ $53 24h
United States to win the second half? SELL No 99¢ $14 24h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 23¢ $2 25h
United States to win the second half? BUY No 70¢ $10 25h
United States to win the second half? BUY No 70¢ $10 25h
United States to win the second half? BUY No 70¢ $25 25h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 25¢ $8 25h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 25¢ $3 25h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 26¢ $10 25h
United States to win the second half? BUY No 66¢ $25 25h
United States to win the second half? BUY No 65¢ $0 25h
United States to win the second half? BUY No 66¢ $10 25h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 33¢ $26 25h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 34¢ $5 25h
United States to win the second half? BUY No 61¢ $40 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $169 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $188 25h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 59¢ $100 26h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $84 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under $6 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 69¢ $139 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $26 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 321 history records