Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcaea…c402 world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 59L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$10
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$15
politics 19% −$2
sports 13% +$15
other 10% +$23
economics 10% +$1
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 25 -1.4% -10.8% 36% 4% -10.9%
≤90d 78 -1.0% -10.5% 28% 3% -10.1%
all 87 -0.6% -10.1% 32% 9% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 9% -8.8%
10% -18.7% 7% -17.5%
15% -26.5% 6% -25.5%
20% -33.7% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 59
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage521d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 27¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $22 −$5 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $94 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $12 −$1 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $85 −$6 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $42 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $44 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $157 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $139 −$2 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $82 −$1 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $114 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 +3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 +7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $13 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $6 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $24 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $23 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $23 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.42 · official $3.64 (match) · 381 history records