Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xcaef…c642 other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,139 (+14%) realized +$6,291 · open −$1,152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%7W / 42L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$542per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$411est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$3,788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,235
7 days+$7,547
14 days+$7,547
30 days+$7,416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$6,808
other 27% −$544
crypto 6% −$2,033
world 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-50.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -35.8% -41.9% 17% 17% +14.3%
≤30d 44 -38.8% -44.6% 16% 16% +13.8%
≤90d 49 -45.0% -50.2% 14% 14% +6.1%
all 49 -45.0% -50.2% 14% 14% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.2% 14% +6.1%
10% -55.0% 14% -4.1%
15% -59.3% 14% -13.3%
20% -63.3% 14% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$626) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,114 vs −$392 · ×7.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$3,788
Realized+$6,291
Unrealized−$1,152
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses7 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$411
Open positions17
Markets (closed)49 / 67
History coverage47d
Avg bet$542
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) Norway 54¢ 32¢ $2,000 $1,185 −$815 (-41%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 21¢ 36¢ $200 $343 +$143 (+71%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $232 $312 +$81 (+35%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $200 $275 +$75 (+38%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Over 24¢ 38¢ $168 $262 +$94 (+56%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $310 $259 −$51 (-16%)
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 3 Iraq? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+11%)
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $300 $217 −$83 (-28%)
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+8%)
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 2 Iraq? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $300 $165 −$135 (-45%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $100 $143 +$43 (+43%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $200 $83 −$117 (-59%)
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $200 $56 −$144 (-72%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $210 $43 −$167 (-80%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 France? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $4 −$96 (-96%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 France? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $63 −$61 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $125 −$122 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $309 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $106 −$103 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $117 −$114 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $309 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $154 −$150 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $510 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $142 −$138 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $206 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $308 −$300 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $508 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $511 +$1,184 +232%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,019 +$1,613 +158%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,518 +$1,024 +67%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $411 −$400 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $308 −$300 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,529 −$1,500 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 24 $262 −$124 -47%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $411 +$4,584 +1115%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3,050 +$3,761 +123%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $3,537 +$3,565 +101%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $4,174 +$6,066 +145%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 24 $154 −$150 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $309 −$300 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $2,542 −$2,500 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $514 −$500 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $142 −$138 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 11 $854 −$807 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8PM ET May 11 $106 −$100 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 10 $626 −$626 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 10 $519 −$500 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $172 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 France? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $97 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $109 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $200 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $309 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 54¢ $2,028 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 3 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 3 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $99 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $308 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $309 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 14h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 31h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 31h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 31h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 31h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 31h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 31h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $125 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,787.67 · official $3,787.67 (match) · 103 history records