Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcaf1…a57b
crypto · 1384 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$559 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$559 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$559
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses494 / 890
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1384 / 1384
History coverage104d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 1384 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$26
14 days−$33
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -71%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -83%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -77%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 64% −$538
sports 29% +$62
other 4% −$35
weather 2% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $0 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -15.2% -23.3% 36% 36% -16.2%
≤30d 160 -16.9% -24.8% 37% 36% -18.1%
≤90d 1292 -7.6% -16.4% 36% 34% -16.0%
all 1384 -8.6% -17.3% 36% 34% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 34% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 32% -26.2%
15% -32.4% 30% -33.4%
20% -39.0% 28% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records