Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CA 0xcaf3…b611 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$7 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.5% -24.4% 0% 0% -24.4%
≤30d 4 -3.1% -12.4% 50% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 4 -3.1% -12.4% 50% 0% -13.4%
all 4 -3.1% -12.4% 50% 0% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -13.4%
10% -20.8% 0% -21.7%
15% -28.4% 0% -29.3%
20% -35.4% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage25d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $128 −$21 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $119 +$9 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $10 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.11 · official $97.11 (match) · 9 history records