Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcaf5…41ab
weather · 1238 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$544 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$542 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$605
Realized+$542
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses511 / 634
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions93
Markets (closed)1145 / 1238
History coverage68d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 93 History 1145 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$33
14 days+$107
30 days+$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 41¢ 93¢ $8 $18 +$10 (+127%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 33¢ $8 $17 +$10 (+120%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 38¢ 81¢ $8 $16 +$9 (+113%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 39¢ 64¢ $9 $14 +$6 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Yes 24¢ 42¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+75%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $8 $13 +$6 (+77%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 38¢ 63¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+66%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 47¢ 88¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+86%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 26¢ 42¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+63%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+53%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 54¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 31¢ 55¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+77%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 57¢ 77¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+35%)
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? No 57¢ 76¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+33%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+34%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 74¢ 94¢ $8 $11 +$2 (+27%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 67¢ 87¢ $7 $10 +$2 (+31%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 57¢ 64¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? No 91¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 73¢ 85¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 86¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 83¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 12 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +16%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$18 +199%
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$16 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$10 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -15%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $8 +$2 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$16 +202%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$19 +231%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$14 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$13 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$51 +626%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$8 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$4 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$8 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$7 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$14 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$6 +429%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 34% +$597
sports 26% −$245
other 15% −$126
world 13% +$85
politics 9% +$240
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% −$42
crypto 0% +$33
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthony Gordon be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 0m
Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's SELL No 99¢ $9 21m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 43m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 57¢ $9 44m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 44m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 63¢ $8 45m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 46m
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 90¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 90¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 4h
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $8 6h
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 93¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 87¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 +6.7% -3.5% 40% 34% -11.3%
≤30d 804 +13.0% +2.2% 44% 34% -3.2%
≤90d 1145 +13.1% +2.3% 45% 36% -3.4%
all 1145 +13.1% +2.3% 45% 36% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 36% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 28% -12.6%
15% -16.4% 22% -21.0%
20% -24.6% 18% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604.69 · official $604.24 (match) · 3500 history records