Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xcaf6…0bb9 sports 671 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,405 (-1%) realized −$7,405 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%622W / 49L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$838per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$950est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$60
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$7,433
world 3% $0
politics 1% +$38
other 1% +$6
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 87 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 520 +0.3% -9.2% 96% 0% -11.1%
all 671 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 3% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 3% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 3% -19.3%
15% -26.0% 3% -27.1%
20% -33.3% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$266 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,405
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses622 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$950
Open positions0
Markets (closed)671 / 671
History coverage127d
Avg bet$838
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 671 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs. Keshav Chopra: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $111 +$1 +1%
Heck vs. Jones: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $136 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Heck vs Jones Jun 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 35 or more p Jun 14 $212 +$1 +1%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 20 or more p Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 40 or more p Jun 14 $624 +$2 +0%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 30 or more p Jun 14 $161 +$2 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Sornlaksup vs Chanta Jun 12 $85 +$1 +1%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Imanol Lopez Morillo vs Patrik Homola Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Yang vs. Hontama: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $65 +$1 +1%
Yang vs. Hontama: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $158 +$2 +1%
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire Jun 10 $1,840 +$38 +2%
T20 Blast, Women: Lancashire Thunder vs Hampshire - Who wins the toss? Jun 09 $32 +$2 +6%
ITF Kayseri: Irina Khayndrava vs Defne Aydemir Jun 09 $1,318 +$1 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia - Completed match? Jun 09 $176 +$2 +1%
Test Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Match goes to Jun 08 $212 $0 +0%
Test Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Match goes to Jun 08 $96 $0 +0%
T20 Blast, Women: The Blaze vs Lancashire Thunder - Who wins the toss? Jun 08 $104 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, Women: Somerset vs Warwickshire - Who wins the toss? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, Women: The Blaze vs Lancashire Thunder - Completed match? Jun 08 $104 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, Women: Somerset vs Warwickshire - Completed match? Jun 08 $101 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, Women: Essex vs Hampshire - Who wins the toss? Jun 08 $97 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, Women: Essex vs Hampshire - Completed match? Jun 08 $97 +$1 +1%
Test Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Match goes to Jun 08 $552 +$1 +0%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 07 $97 $0 +0%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia - Who wins th Jun 07 $91 +$1 +1%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Oman - Toss Match Double Nepal Wi Jun 07 $113 +$3 +3%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Oman - Who wins the toss? Jun 07 $138 +$3 +2%
Tyler: Completed Match: Kumar/Poling vs Harper/Milavsky Jun 06 $18 $0 +1%
Tyler (Doubles): Kumar/Poling vs Harper/Milavsky Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 06 $566 +$1 +0%
Centurion 2 (Doubles): Azkara/Duran vs Badenhorst/Koenig Jun 06 $1,602 +$27 +2%
ITF Banja Luka: Ella Haavisto vs Lucie Petruzelova Jun 06 $121 $0 +0%
ITF Banja Luka: Mirjana Jovanovic vs Allegra Korpanec Davies Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
ITF Monastir: Maria Oliver Sanchez vs Berta Passola Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
ITF Osijek: Katerina Tsygourova vs Dora Miskovic Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
ITF Women Focsani: Completed Match: Daria Yesypchuk vs Maria Sara Popa Jun 06 $142 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Helioevaara/Patten Jun 06 $1,598 $0 -0%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire - Toss Match Double Leicestershire Jun 05 $138 +$2 +1%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire - Who wins the toss? Jun 05 $104 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire - Toss Match Double Warwick Jun 05 $132 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire - Who wins the toss? Jun 05 $149 +$1 +1%
ITF Ljubljana: Duje Ajdukovic vs Florian Zimmer Jun 04 $468 $0 +0%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies - Completed matc Jun 01 $489 +$4 +1%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Durham - Who wins the toss? Jun 01 $57 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire - Toss Match Double Northa Jun 01 $142 +$2 +1%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Gloucestershire - Toss Match Double Yorkshire May 31 $144 +$2 +1%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Durham - Toss Match Double Durham Winner May 31 $144 +$2 +1%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire - Who wins the toss? May 31 $84 +$2 +2%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Thailand vs Malaysia - Toss Match D May 31 $159 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs. Keshav Chopra: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 99¢ $111 1h
Heck vs. Jones: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $136 4d
Set 2 Winner: Heck vs Jones BUY Heck 100¢ $69 4d
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 35 or more p BUY No 99¢ $212 7d
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 40 or more p BUY No 100¢ $624 7d
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 30 or more p BUY No 99¢ $161 7d
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 20 or more p BUY No 99¢ $25 7d
Set 2 Winner: Sornlaksup vs Chanta BUY Sornlaksup 99¢ $85 9d
ITF Ceska Lipa: Imanol Lopez Morillo vs Patrik Homola BUY Imanol Lopez Morillo 98¢ $98 9d
Yang vs. Hontama: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $65 10d
Yang vs. Hontama: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $158 10d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $69 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $84 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $2 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $4 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $8 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $98 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $83 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $2 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $22 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $9 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $23 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $23 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $60 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $66 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $12 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $78 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $98 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $98 11d
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire BUY Durham 49¢ $90 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2693 history records