Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcaf9…6d54 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (216 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$50 (-2%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day216.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$336
sports 7% +$631
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +18.1% +6.9% 55% 36% +4.5%
≤30d 11 +18.1% +6.9% 55% 36% +4.5%
≤90d 11 +18.1% +6.9% 55% 36% +4.5%
all 11 +18.1% +6.9% 55% 36% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover216.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.9% 36% +4.5%
10% ← realistic here -3.3% 27% -5.5%
15% -12.7% 27% -14.7%
20% -21.2% 18% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
18.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$79 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day216.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $153 +$631 +413%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $18 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $1,210 +$26 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $40 −$22 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $126 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $32 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $115 −$92 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $783 42m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 19¢ $153 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 220 history records