Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CA 0xcafd…cde6 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$29 (+3%) realized +$67 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days+$42
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$18
sports 21% +$33
crypto 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.4% -18.9% 38% 38% -14.3%
≤30d 22 +12.3% +1.6% 59% 59% -1.6%
≤90d 22 +12.3% +1.6% 59% 59% -1.6%
all 22 +12.3% +1.6% 59% 59% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 59% -1.6%
10% -8.1% 55% -11.0%
15% -17.0% 45% -19.6%
20% -25.1% 14% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage18d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $566 $527 −$38 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $56 −$13 -24%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $5 +$7 +128%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 +$10 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $29 +$13 +46%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $69 +$10 +14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 18 $15 −$12 -80%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $28 −$2 -6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 −$1 -2%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 +$26 +172%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $60 +$29 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $22 +$5 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $33 1h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 71¢ $12 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 19¢ $32 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 30¢ $5 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 25¢ $15 4d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $60 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $60 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $29 4d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 26¢ $91 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $44 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 5d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $27 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $30 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $28 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 5d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $82 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $15 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 7d
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 7d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 7d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.19 · official $527.19 (match) · 85 history records