Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcaff…e3ad
politics · 48 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist
Net worth$56
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)36 / 48
History coverage28d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 12 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$3
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 11 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Randy Villegas advance from the CA-22 Primary? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $9 +$8 +93%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 08 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Spain win the World Cup? Jun 07 $8 $0 -5%
Will "Ragtime" win Best Revival of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 06 $8 $0 +3%
Will Mike McGuire advance from the CA-01 primary election? Jun 04 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 01 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 01 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Rakhi Israni Singh advance from the CA-14 primary election? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 01 $2 $0 -6%
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +24%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 01 $17 $0 -2%
Will Angela Gonzales-Torres advance from the CA-34 primary election? Jun 01 $7 $0 -4%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? May 31 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Kevin Lincoln II advance from the CA-13 primary election? May 31 $9 +$1 +6%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 31 $26 −$5 -20%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 30 $3 $0 +1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? May 27 $3 $0 +10%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 27 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Samuel Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? May 25 $4 $0 -2%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? May 25 $4 $0 -5%
Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral May 25 $1 $0 -6%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect May 25 $3 +$1 +25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $6 −$1 -11%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? May 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during events in Rockland County? May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 16 $4 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 56% +$6
other 23% −$3
sports 15% −$2
world 6% +$1
economics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 55¢ $6 4h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 5h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $7 5h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY No 70¢ $7 6h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 56¢ $6 8h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 9h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? SELL Yes $1 12h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 76¢ $8 20h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 79¢ $8 24h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 32h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 35h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 38h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 39h
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary SELL No $0 43h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? SELL No 74¢ $7 43h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY No 76¢ $8 45h
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 45h
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc BUY No 32¢ $3 2d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 67¢ $7 3d
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 84¢ $8 4d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima SELL No $0 4d
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? SELL No 42¢ $1 5d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 46¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.6% -18.3% 36% 9% -0.9%
≤30d 36 -7.5% -16.3% 42% 19% -7.0%
≤90d 36 -7.5% -16.3% 42% 19% -7.0%
all 36 -7.5% -16.3% 42% 19% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 19% -7.0%
10% -24.3% 17% -15.9%
15% -31.6% 6% -24.0%
20% -38.3% 3% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.64 · official $55.56 (match) · 146 history records