Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb00…1942 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$99 (-5%) realized −$171 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%21W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$72
crypto 25% −$111
weather 9% −$92
sports 4% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 39 -45.5% -50.7% 28% 28% -55.4%
all 57 -33.8% -40.1% 37% 37% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 37% -42.8%
10% -45.9% 35% -48.3%
15% -51.1% 30% -53.3%
20% -55.9% 21% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1,172
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses21 / 36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage92d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $800 $947 +$147 (+18%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $175 −$25 (-12%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 15? May 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 03 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 2? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 2? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 1? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 2? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2? Apr 03 $10 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 2? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 1? Apr 02 $10 +$16 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 1? Apr 02 $10 +$24 +240%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 1? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 1? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 19 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 19 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Essence vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Seri Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs aimclub (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Quali Mar 19 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 19 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 19 $10 +$7 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: AGELITE vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1 Mar 19 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 19 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 19 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 18 $20 −$4 -22%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 30m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $206 51m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $824 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 33d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $6 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $14 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 74d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 2? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 2? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 76d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 2? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 76d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 2? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 76d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 2? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $10 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 1? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 78d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 1? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 78d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 1? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 78d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 1? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 78d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 78d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 1? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $10 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $18 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,172.37 · official $1,172.37 (match) · 127 history records