Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcb01…ead3
world · 61 markets active 14h ago
0.0score
−$8,300 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,506 · open −$4,794
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$4,655
Realized−$3,506
Unrealized−$4,794
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions7
Markets (closed)54 / 61
Avg bet$1,970
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 7 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$15,194
14 days+$14,465
30 days−$13,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 58¢ 54¢ $2,000 $1,833 −$167 (-8%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 26¢ 29¢ $1,000 $1,115 +$115 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $5,048 $288 −$4,760 (-94%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1,700 $0 −$1,700 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $177 $0 −$177 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1,606 $0 −$1,606 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No 7¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $870 $0 −$870 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Iran leadership change by May 31? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7,567 $0 −$7,567 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $1,300 +$159 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $25,256 +$13,621 +54%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $37 +$164 +450%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $252 +$1,249 +496%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 05 $450 −$450 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 04 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $2,522 −$82 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $100 +$427 +427%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $500 −$500 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $700 −$700 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $7,700 −$4,884 -63%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $2,000 +$10,006 +500%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $900 +$14 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $5,400 −$635 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $600 +$155 +26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,334 +$691 +52%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 23 $100 −$47 -47%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $1,200 −$395 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $1,700 +$984 +58%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $177 −$177 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $1,606 −$1,606 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 21 $1,000 −$200 -20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 20 $317 −$317 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 20 $939 −$939 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $516 −$516 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 20 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $830 −$830 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $157 −$157 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 20 $791 −$791 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 20 $1,539 −$1,539 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $5,000 −$1,570 -31%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $1,990 −$1,625 -82%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 17 $18,234 −$9,688 -53%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $4,044 −$3,523 -87%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? May 15 $1,100 −$892 -81%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? May 15 $2,400 −$1,425 -59%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 28 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2,000 +$2,324 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 95% −$6,492
other 3% −$1,352
finance 1% +$691
sports 1% −$1,100
politics 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2,000 13h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1,459 19h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 43¢ $5,233 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $10,420 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $201 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,266 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,000 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,357 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,460 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $233 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $80 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $336 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $59 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $3,408 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $33 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 71¢ $10,000 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $5,210 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $1,501 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $9,600 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $81 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +253.0% +219.4% 100% 100% +41.7%
≤30d 47 -23.6% -30.9% 21% 19% -18.3%
≤90d 54 -23.7% -31.0% 22% 20% -7.5%
all 54 -23.7% -31.0% 22% 20% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 20% -7.5%
10% -37.6% 19% -16.3%
15% -43.6% 17% -24.4%
20% -49.2% 17% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,654.70 · official $4,654.70 (match) · 480 history records