Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcb02…b891 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$77 (+19%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.0% -28.5% 46% 46% +23.5%
≤30d 13 -21.0% -28.5% 46% 46% +23.5%
≤90d 13 -21.0% -28.5% 46% 46% +23.5%
all 13 -21.0% -28.5% 46% 46% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 46% +23.5%
10% -35.4% 38% +11.6%
15% -41.6% 38% +0.9%
20% -47.3% 38% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$14 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $72 +$57 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $113 +$59 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $73 +$102 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records