Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb02…c292 sports 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,707 (+13%) realized +$3,705 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%72W / 40L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day40.2pace
Fees−$380est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$866
7 days+$447
14 days+$2,979
30 days+$3,699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$3,800
other 15% −$70
crypto 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +4.4% -5.5% 65% 59% -2.8%
≤30d 112 +7.2% -3.0% 64% 60% +2.9%
≤90d 112 +7.2% -3.0% 64% 60% +2.9%
all 112 +7.2% -3.0% 64% 60% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 60% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 51% -7.0%
15% -20.8% 37% -16.0%
20% -28.5% 29% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$137 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,314
Realized+$3,705
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses72 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$380
Open positions4
Markets (closed)112 / 117
History coverage15d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 85¢ 84¢ $1,022 $1,014 −$8 (-1%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 60¢ $174 $182 +$8 (+4%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner T1 84¢ 86¢ $81 $82 +$1 (+2%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 83¢ 85¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $40 +$11 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 +$24 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$20 +50%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $202 +$50 +25%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $303 −$106 -35%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 −$78 -77%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$23 +46%
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $59 −$47 -79%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $44 −$31 -71%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $104 −$49 -46%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $202 +$101 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $113 +$90 +79%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $154 −$154 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $157 +$34 +22%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $157 +$101 +64%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $136 −$81 -60%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $18 +$28 +151%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $155 +$150 +97%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $328 +$172 +52%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $23 +$27 +117%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $313 +$203 +65%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $85 +$26 +30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $274 +$226 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $126 +$44 +35%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $320 +$180 +56%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $145 +$22 +15%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $24 +$26 +108%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $55 +$2 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $5 +$5 +105%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $9 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $285 +$45 +16%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $110 +$90 +82%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $75 +$25 +33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $317 +$189 +60%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $13 +$17 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 83¢ $10 2m
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $176 50m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 87¢ $50 52m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $40 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 83¢ $15 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $5 8h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $2 21h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 83¢ $2 21h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $5 21h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $10 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 24h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 83¢ $9 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $48 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $252 29h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 44¢ $197 29h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 14¢ $24 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $74 29h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $303 30h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 30h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $202 30h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $14 36h
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 70¢ $5 39h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $32 41h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $9 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,313.97 · official $1,313.97 (match) · 680 history records