Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

CB 0xcb02…ca1c other 21 markets active 9d ago coverage 149d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$2,357 (-18%) realized −$2,126 · open −$231

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$619per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$1,930

30 days−$1,735

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-25.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	13	-21.3%	-28.8%	54%	46%	-31.6%
≤90d	15	-16.7%	-24.6%	53%	47%	-27.5%
all	20	-17.9%	-25.7%	55%	35%	-25.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.7%	35%	-25.2%
10%	-32.8%	25%	-32.4%
15%	-39.3%	20%	-38.9%
20%	-45.2%	15%	-44.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,045) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -1% → late -35% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$168 vs −$449 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized−$2,126

Unrealized−$231

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage149d

Avg bet$619

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	15¢	4¢	$330	$99	−$231 (-70%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$822	−$817	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$703	+$120	+17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$565	+$137	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$388	+$177	+46%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$1,045	−$208	-20%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 15	$449	−$441	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$325	−$322	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$634	−$632	-100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$328	+$271	+82%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$217	−$215	-99%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	May 31	$1,386	+$62	+4%
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?	May 31	$22	+$3	+12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 31	$229	+$131	+57%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	May 15	$562	−$548	-98%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	Apr 14	$520	+$659	+127%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?	Feb 05	$830	−$830	-100%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside	Feb 02	$1,250	+$124	+10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28?	Jan 28	$100	−$31	-31%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Jan 28	$1,200	+$84	+7%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	Jan 26	$1,100	+$82	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$822	9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	85¢	$703	9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$565	10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$565	10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$388	10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$379	10d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	42¢	$449	11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	15¢	$458	11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$325	11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$634	11d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	100¢	$599	12d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	54¢	$328	12d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Switzerland	60¢	$217	13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1,045	15d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	SELL Yes	100¢	$906	26d
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?	SELL Yes	34¢	$25	26d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	BUY Yes	95¢	$196	26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY No	63¢	$229	27d
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?	BUY Yes	31¢	$17	28d
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?	BUY Yes	24¢	$2	28d
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?	BUY Yes	23¢	$2	29d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	49¢	$562	42d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	SELL Yes	91¢	$542	42d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	BUY Yes	92¢	$939	46d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	BUY Yes	92¢	$251	46d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	SELL $80k	60¢	$1,180	73d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	15¢	$330	97d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	BUY $80k	27¢	$120	118d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	BUY $80k	27¢	$202	118d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	BUY $80k	27¢	$2	118d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.00 · official $99.00 (match) · 81 history records