Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb03…5ae4 sports 655 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,244 (+2%) realized +$2,244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%313W / 386L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$1,642est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$5,185
other 16% −$3,013
crypto 4% −$1,677
politics 0% −$94
world 0% −$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -56.8% -60.9% 19% 19% -17.8%
≤30d 218 -26.9% -33.8% 35% 32% -13.6%
≤90d 678 -2.7% -11.9% 44% 40% -9.7%
all 699 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 40% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 40% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 35% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 30% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 24% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$81 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses313 / 386
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,642
Open positions0
Markets (closed)699 / 655
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$208
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 699 Trades
no open positions (100 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canucks vs. Kraken Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Azerbaijan vs. France end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Stupid people" this week? (December 15 - 21) Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Venezia FC vs. US Catanzaro 1929 end in a draw? Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bangladesh T20 Series: Bangladesh vs Ireland (Game 2) Jun 19 $2 −$40 -1620%
Will Trump say "Hamas" during Saudi PM events on November 18? Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trinidad and Tobago vs. Bermuda end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Tax" or "Tariff" 10+ times during the McDonald's Summi Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Thank" or "Please" 20+ times during the Hanukkah Recep Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Wizards vs. Nuggets Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Raptors vs. Rockets Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Jun 19 $26 −$26 -102%
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Jewish" 10+ times during the Hanukkah Recepti Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (December 15 - 21) Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2025-11-15? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during Pennsylvania e Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-11-16? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Board of Peace" during Saudi PM events on November 18? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Hamburger SV vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "G20" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. Seattle Redhawks Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3? Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Suns vs. Heat Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Jazz vs. Nets Jun 19 $33 −$40 -121%
Will Bermuda win on 2025-11-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" this week? (December 1 - 7) Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bulls vs. Hornets Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-01-03? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Celtics vs. Thunder Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 7+ times during the Hanukkah Reception event on T Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at Rocky Mount events on Friday? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Raptors vs. Nets Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2025-12-31? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Astros vs. Mariners Jun 19 $2 −$10 -449%
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $500 +$351 +70%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $2,165 −$964 -44%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $600 −$296 -49%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $245 +$255 +104%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $647 +$353 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $194 −$111 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 58¢ $500 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $484 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $2 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $910 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $35 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $1 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $2 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $8 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 31¢ $304 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 37¢ $367 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 60¢ $600 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 35¢ $350 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 67¢ $271 3h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 67¢ $2 3h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 67¢ $397 3h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $537 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $83 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 64¢ $647 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $16 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $24 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $24 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $96 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $11 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $6 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $13 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $5 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $5 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $20 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $24 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $194 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records