Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb0b…62cd sports 692 markets active 6h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,240 (-3%) realized −$1,390 · open +$150
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%308W / 372L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$575est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$668now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days+$674
14 days+$1,153
30 days−$1,489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,862
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +31.9% +19.4% 46% 44% +22.8%
≤30d 298 +0.7% -8.8% 42% 41% -16.9%
≤90d 678 -1.0% -10.5% 45% 45% -14.6%
all 680 -1.0% -10.5% 45% 45% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 45% -14.6%
10% -19.0% 45% -22.8%
15% -26.9% 45% -30.2%
20% -34.0% 44% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$52 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$668
Realized−$1,390
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses308 / 372
Est. fees paid−$575
Open positions12
Markets (closed)680 / 692
History coverage93d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 680 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 49¢ 100¢ $78 $160 +$81 (+104%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 46¢ 68¢ $78 $115 +$37 (+47%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 47¢ 98¢ $39 $81 +$42 (+107%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ 39¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 27¢ 26¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) San Diego Padres 36¢ 64¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+78%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 33¢ 26¢ $39 $30 −$9 (-23%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 33¢ 33¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 35¢ 34¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers 26¢ 25¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 34¢ 32¢ $20 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) St. Louis Cardinals 30¢ $19 $5 −$15 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$50 +125%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$43 +217%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 17 $17 +$44 +261%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 16 $21 +$44 +214%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$48 +236%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $82 +$72 +89%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $82 +$82 +100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 +$62 +151%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $82 +$129 +157%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $61 +$1 +2%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$44 +214%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 +$44 +171%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $82 +$59 +73%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 +$73 +236%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 +$60 +196%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 +$44 +214%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$52 +254%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 13 $62 −$31 -51%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 13 $41 −$16 -39%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 12 $82 −$62 -75%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 12 $24 +$35 +151%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $21 +$44 +214%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $21 +$51 +248%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $21 +$56 +274%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 12 $82 +$82 +100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 11 $24 −$23 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 11 $17 −$17 -97%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 11 $17 −$17 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $41 +$38 +92%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$38 +187%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 33¢ $20 6h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 34¢ $20 6h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 35¢ $20 6h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 26¢ $20 6h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 33¢ $40 6h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 27¢ $40 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $40 6h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 36¢ $20 6h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 30¢ $20 6h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $80 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $80 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $40 14h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 44¢ $40 14h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ $20 22h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 32¢ $20 22h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 31¢ $20 22h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ $20 22h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 27¢ $17 22h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 38¢ $23 22h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 29¢ $21 2d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 32¢ $21 2d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 31¢ $21 2d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 31¢ $21 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Detroit Tigers 52¢ $62 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 94¢ $141 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $82 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $82 3d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 39¢ $41 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $82 3d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 28¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $668.45 · official $668.46 (match) · 1427 history records