Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb0d…3e25 weather 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$139 (-1%) realized −$130 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate91%223W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day143.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days+$36
14 days−$144
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -0.5% -10.0% 92% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 244 -1.0% -10.4% 91% 17% -10.3%
≤90d 244 -1.0% -10.4% 91% 17% -10.3%
all 244 -1.0% -10.4% 91% 17% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 17% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 8% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 5% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$58 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses223 / 21
Open positions9
Markets (closed)244 / 253
History coverage8d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day143.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 21? Yes 99¢ 94¢ $89 $85 −$4 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? Jun 22 $147 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 21 $45 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $205 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 −$39 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 21 $181 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $123 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $47 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 20 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $76 +$16 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $55 +$10 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $51 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $155 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $111 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $279 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $202 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $77 +$14 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $124 +$48 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 30m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? SELL Yes 94¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? SELL Yes 92¢ $70 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY Yes 91¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY Yes 91¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 6h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 87¢ $39 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.36 · official $165.05 (match) · 1391 history records