Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb0e…c22f sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$136 (-10%) realized −$156 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%35W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$19
14 days−$133
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$20
other 19% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +24.8% +12.9% 56% 56% -12.0%
≤30d 74 +2.7% -7.1% 47% 47% -18.8%
≤90d 74 +2.7% -7.1% 47% 47% -18.8%
all 74 +2.7% -7.1% 47% 47% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 47% -18.8%
10% -16.0% 47% -26.5%
15% -24.1% 47% -33.6%
20% -31.5% 47% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses35 / 39
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage19d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $17 $37 +$20 (+117%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $15 +$17 +112%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 26 $17 −$17 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $13 +$14 +105%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $10 +$13 +126%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $10 +$11 +105%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $8 +$9 +114%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $9 +$9 +101%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$11 +52%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $11 −$11 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle Jun 24 $9 +$12 +129%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $9 +$10 +114%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $8 +$10 +129%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 +$11 +93%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $8 +$13 +158%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $8 +$8 +97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 +$8 +98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $62 −$61 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 −$24 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $35 +$26 +73%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $18 −$18 -98%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 22 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$18 +180%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $17 +$13 +73%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $40 +$38 +95%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $6 +$12 +188%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$46 +226%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 +$22 +128%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $14 +$8 +57%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $26 −$26 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $18 −$18 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $16 +$17 +105%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $24 +$27 +109%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $11 +$10 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 1h
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 1h
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 3h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $17 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $27 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 48¢ $13 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 44¢ $10 10h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 100¢ $21 10h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 48¢ $10 12h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 22h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 22h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 29h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $15 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $11 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle BUY Vilius Gaubas 43¢ $9 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 46¢ $9 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $8 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $62 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 30¢ $25 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.94 · official $36.94 (match) · 133 history records