Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb0e…219d sports 148 markets active 1d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%55W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$52
14 days−$90
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$29
crypto 26% −$20
other 19% −$47
finance 6% −$11
weather 2% $0
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -15.2% -23.2% 29% 14% -17.9%
≤30d 147 -4.8% -13.9% 37% 29% -13.8%
≤90d 147 -4.8% -13.9% 37% 29% -13.8%
all 147 -4.8% -13.9% 37% 29% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 29% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 24% -22.1%
15% -29.6% 22% -29.6%
20% -36.5% 18% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses55 / 92
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage20d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $14 −$7 -46%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 −$7 -20%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$2 -14%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$5 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +32%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 -22%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $1 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 25h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 100¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $3 31h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 32h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 79¢ $2 33h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 80¢ $10 33h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 2¢ $1 34h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 2¢ $1 34h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 1¢ $1 34h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 1¢ $2 34h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 88¢ $6 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $3 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $2 35h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $5 35h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $2 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 35h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $1 35h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 81¢ $2 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $5 35h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 86¢ $4 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 35h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $2 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 663 history records