Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
CB 0xcb11…d1a8 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$52 (+55%) realized +$65 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +111% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +91% what you keep after slip
Net edge+91%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$101
14 days+$101
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$82
other 21% −$20
politics 21% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+90.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +321.9% +281.7% 100% 100% +247.9%
≤30d 3 +321.9% +281.7% 100% 100% +247.9%
≤90d 3 +321.9% +281.7% 100% 100% +247.9%
all 6 +110.9% +90.8% 50% 50% +66.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +90.8% 50% +66.1%
10% +72.6% 50% +50.2%
15% +55.9% 50% +35.7%
20% +40.6% 50% +22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +284% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +111% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$13 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage222d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$49 +473%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 28h
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $19 127d
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 221d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 221d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.26 · official $7.26 (match) · 13 history records