Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcb11…0d5e world 481 markets active 0h ago coverage 1112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$4,571 (+4%) realized +$4,021 · open −$1,560
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%237W / 220L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$7,413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$849
30 days+$653
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$2,966
politics 18% +$4,539
other 13% −$676
economics 6% −$191
crypto 2% +$1,165
tech 1% +$507
finance 0% −$12
culture 0% +$131
sports 0% −$34
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -10.1% -18.7% 70% 50% -0.6%
≤90d 104 -46.5% -51.6% 21% 17% -39.7%
all 457 +5.8% -4.2% 52% 41% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 41% -5.7%
10% -13.4% 32% -14.7%
15% -21.8% 24% -23.0%
20% -29.4% 20% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$124 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1112d coverage
Net worth$7,413
Realized+$4,021
Unrealized−$1,560
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses237 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)457 / 481
History coverage1112d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 68¢ 68¢ $1,357 $1,370 +$13 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 72¢ 90¢ $1,085 $1,342 +$258 (+24%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $840 $845 +$5 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 56¢ 76¢ $577 $787 +$210 (+36%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 80¢ 92¢ $454 $522 +$68 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 80¢ 100¢ $400 $498 +$98 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 27¢ 24¢ $550 $473 −$77 (-14%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $290 $229 −$60 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 35¢ $282 $224 −$58 (-20%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $188 $191 +$3 (+1%)
UK Recession in 2026? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $250 $188 −$62 (-25%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 57¢ 84¢ $121 $175 +$55 (+45%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 65¢ 30¢ $371 $169 −$202 (-54%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 29¢ 10¢ $292 $105 −$187 (-64%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $60 $52 −$8 (-13%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $55 $50 −$5 (-9%)
Japan recession in 2026? Yes 36¢ 25¢ $59 $41 −$18 (-31%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $200 $15 −$185 (-92%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $58 $14 −$43 (-75%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 58¢ 0¢ $675 $5 −$670 (-99%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 12¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-75%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 0¢ $345 $1 −$344 (-100%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 0¢ $135 $1 −$134 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 03 $149 −$149 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,105 +$280 +25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $740 +$260 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $583 +$457 +78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $881 +$83 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $491 −$491 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 25 $105 +$30 +29%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $652 +$98 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $1,874 +$126 +7%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 14 $196 −$196 -100%
US recession by end of 2026? May 12 $290 −$61 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $1,820 +$1,180 +65%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 10 $435 +$10 +2%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $425 +$45 +11%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $1,926 +$574 +30%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $55 +$945 +1718%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $394 −$3 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 03 $1,202 +$170 +14%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Apr 30 $117 −$117 -100%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31? Apr 29 $348 −$348 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $36 −$36 -100%
US bank failure by April 30? Apr 27 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $264 −$264 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 22 $272 −$272 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $760 −$760 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 16 $43 −$43 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $895 −$305 -34%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $91 −$7 -7%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $181 +$8 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $135 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 09 $320 −$29 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 09 $597 +$244 +41%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 09 $350 −$350 -100%
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? Apr 09 $65 −$65 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 09 $385 −$125 -33%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $160 −$160 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 09 $233 −$233 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 09 $125 −$125 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 09 $602 −$602 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $957 +$744 +78%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $571 +$113 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $524 +$699 +133%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 30 $316 +$89 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $109 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $198 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $240 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $225 30m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $800 39m
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $5 42m
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $150 42m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $630 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $590 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $650 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $225 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $200 1h
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $25 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $200 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $282 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $48 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $237 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $75 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $12 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $3 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $56 38h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $109 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $153 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,412.89 · official $7,412.90 (match) · 2594 history records