Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb14…bd17 sports 753 markets active 1h ago coverage 292d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 291d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,722 (+2%) realized +$3,497 · open +$3,225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%377W / 347L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$480per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$16,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$1,357
14 days+$5,435
30 days+$7,819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$10,825
politics 23% +$16,176
other 8% +$1,135
world 7% +$368
culture 2% −$1,433
crypto 2% −$721
tech 0% +$383
finance 0% +$42
economics 0% −$60
weather 0% +$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +4.0% -5.9% 32% 21% +1.6%
≤30d 70 +23.4% +11.6% 50% 39% +17.1%
≤90d 219 +3.3% -6.6% 50% 33% +3.1%
all 724 +1.3% -8.4% 52% 44% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 44% -9.0%
10% -17.1% 38% -17.7%
15% -25.1% 33% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 30% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$303 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage
Net worth$16,484
Realized+$3,497
Unrealized+$3,225
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses377 / 347
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions29
Markets (closed)724 / 753
History coverage292d ⚠
Avg bet$480
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 724 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 24¢ 90¢ $1,324 $4,960 +$3,636 (+275%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 89¢ 99¢ $3,351 $3,741 +$390 (+12%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 73¢ 78¢ $2,190 $2,355 +$165 (+8%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1,310 $1,318 +$8 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 62¢ $665 $747 +$82 (+12%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 43¢ 66¢ $430 $655 +$225 (+52%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $599 $588 −$11 (-2%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 44¢ 24¢ $1,054 $573 −$482 (-46%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $350 $332 −$18 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $236 $252 +$16 (+7%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $84 $203 +$119 (+143%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $200 $138 −$62 (-31%)
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? Yes 54¢ 8¢ $912 $136 −$776 (-85%)
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $114 $113 −$2 (-1%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $76 $78 +$2 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $54 −$7 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 27¢ $35 $53 +$18 (+52%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $130 $52 −$78 (-60%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $29 $49 +$20 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 29? No 68¢ 100¢ $12 $17 +$6 (+47%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-22%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? Jun 29 $42 +$97 +231%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 29? Jun 29 $23 −$14 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 29? Jun 29 $6 −$5 -86%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 27 $125 −$46 -37%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,384 +$66 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $2,564 +$124 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $18 +$232 +1256%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $168 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -88%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 25 $431 −$427 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 −$8 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 +$15 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 24? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 24 $174 −$171 -99%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $3,390 +$1,730 +51%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $698 +$1,030 +148%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $294 +$39 +13%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 24 $1,558 −$1,173 -75%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,332 +$3,513 +264%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $286 −$8 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $392 +$148 +38%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $233 −$233 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $492 −$276 -56%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $1,027 +$673 +66%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 18 $104 −$21 -20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $155 −$155 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $2,612 +$536 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,431 +$815 +57%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 15 $91 −$11 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $485 +$233 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $180 +$72 +40%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $333 +$16 +5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $469 +$71 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $36 +$1 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $122 +$25 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 +$469 +1521%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $339 −$78 -23%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $107 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $496 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 29? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 29? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 29? SELL No 90¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 29? SELL No 90¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 29? SELL No 82¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 29? SELL No 82¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 29? SELL No 82¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $8 7h
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? BUY Yes 93¢ $933 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 29? BUY No 68¢ $57 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 91¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 91¢ $24 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 91¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 91¢ $17 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 50¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 21h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $38 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 21h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,484.12 · official $16,484.37 (match) · 3500 history records