Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb1b…39f2 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$600 (-14%) realized −$466 · open −$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day147.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$792
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-54.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -49.1% -54.0% 21% 21% -26.5%
≤30d 28 -49.1% -54.0% 21% 21% -26.5%
≤90d 28 -49.1% -54.0% 21% 21% -26.5%
all 28 -49.1% -54.0% 21% 21% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.0% 21% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -58.4% 21% -33.6%
15% -62.4% 14% -40.0%
20% -66.1% 11% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$72 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized−$466
Unrealized−$134
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)28 / 33
History coverage5d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day147.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Down 50¢ 40¢ $529 $419 −$110 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? No 49¢ 26¢ $47 $25 −$22 (-47%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+72%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-60%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? No 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$44 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $85 +$49 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $310 +$138 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $447 −$443 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$74 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $85 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $388 +$209 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$9 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $385 +$119 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$235 +480%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $426 −$424 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $701 +$169 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $0 9m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 46¢ $119 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 47¢ $13 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 49¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 51¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 53¢ $277 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? BUY No 48¢ $24 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? BUY No 50¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? BUY No 50¢ $12 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? BUY No 49¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 33¢ $8 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $39 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $22 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.68 · official $467.02 (match) · 687 history records