Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcb20…ce1e crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$9 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$30
other 11% −$5
tech 5% −$26
sports 1% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 15 -46.7% -51.8% 33% 33% -12.3%
all 55 -29.5% -36.2% 38% 36% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 36% -10.2%
10% -42.3% 36% -18.8%
15% -47.9% 35% -26.6%
20% -53.0% 29% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$38 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage150d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 24¢ 18¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $13 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 20 $329 +$75 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 20 $50 +$43 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 20 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 20 $60 +$34 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 20 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 20 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 26 $50 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 26 $100 +$64 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 12 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 12 $50 −$49 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 12 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 12 $40 +$65 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$12 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 12 $150 +$56 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 10 $70 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 10 $80 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 10 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 10 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 10 $50 +$30 +60%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 10 $50 +$23 +46%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 10 $100 +$74 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 23 $68 +$158 +231%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 24-March 2? Feb 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Feb 20 $100 +$131 +131%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 20? Feb 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by March 15? Feb 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $50 +$38 +75%
Will Mikaela Shiffrin (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Feb 19 $98 +$102 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 1 Feb 18 $100 −$100 -100%
2026 NBA All-Star: Nikola Jokić dunk Feb 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? Feb 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1PM ET Feb 02 $100 +$96 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 10¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $13 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $229 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $100 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $50 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $60 63d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $50 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $50 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $10 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $50 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $50 88d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $15 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $100 88d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $50 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 102d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $100 102d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $30 102d
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $20 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $30 102d
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $50 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $40 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $20 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $150 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.66 · official $185.66 · 105 history records