Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb23…1beb other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$125 (-0%) realized −$128 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate27%35W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$968per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,094now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$65
other 39% −$313
sports 9% +$179
world 5% −$33
economics 3% −$8
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 +2.2% -7.6% 8% 2% -9.3%
all 128 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 9% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 9% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 8% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,516) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,094
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses35 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage149d
Avg bet$968
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $858 $861 +$3 (+0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $233 $233 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $230 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $292 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,653 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,427 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,393 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,577 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,960 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,334 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $470 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $595 +$2 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,425 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,761 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,397 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $3,562 −$5 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $4,987 −$6 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $1,703 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,679 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $6,005 −$6 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $3,135 −$4 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $339 +$1 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,472 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $3,139 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,140 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $3,123 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,556 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,748 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,387 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 2h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $230 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $230 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $291 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $292 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $209 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $209 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $858 10d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,323 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,325 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,653 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,342 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,344 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,541 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,543 15d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,425 15d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,427 16d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,391 19d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,393 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,479 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,481 20d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,590 21d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,592 21d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,574 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,577 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,094.17 · official $1,094.17 (match) · 415 history records