trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 40% | 0% | -12.6% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -12.8% | -21.1% | 27% | 0% | -15.2% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -20.0% | -27.7% | 25% | 0% | -15.2% |
| all | 22 | -12.0% | -20.4% | 50% | 5% | -15.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.4% | 5% | -15.7% |
| 10% | -28.0% | 5% | -23.8% |
| 15% | -34.9% | 5% | -31.1% |
| 20% | -41.3% | 5% | -37.9% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 21 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 20 | $25 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 19 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $26 | −$4 | -15% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 27 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 26 | $72 | −$1 | -1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 24 | $22 | −$9 | -41% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $55 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $28 | −$4 | -16% |
| Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? | Apr 01 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? | Jun 21 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 27 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? | Mar 29 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? | Mar 26 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 28? | Mar 20 | $7 | +$5 | +67% |
| UC Riverside vs. Hawai'i | Mar 20 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |