Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CB 0xcb27…005a crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4,304 (-15%) realized −$4,304 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,561per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$308
7 days+$308
14 days+$308
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$4,046
other 17% −$565
sports 10% +$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +39.3% +26.0% 67% 33% -4.3%
≤30d 3 +39.3% +26.0% 67% 33% -4.3%
≤90d 3 +39.3% +26.0% 67% 33% -4.3%
all 19 +5.8% -4.3% 63% 47% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 47% -23.1%
10% -13.5% 37% -30.5%
15% -21.8% 26% -37.2%
20% -29.5% 26% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$3,098) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$1,084 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage248d
Avg bet$1,561
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $2,551 −$308 -12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $2,459 +$150 +6%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $377 +$467 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 25 $4,103 −$4,050 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 18 $1,280 −$1,152 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 18 $338 −$338 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 18 $551 −$551 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 18 $235 +$265 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 18 $480 +$510 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 18 $3,627 +$588 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 18 $3,514 +$113 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 18 $3,514 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 18 $3,098 +$416 +13%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $751 +$184 +24%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $436 +$288 +66%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $1,431 −$1,186 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Oct 25 $683 +$71 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Oct 25 $200 +$66 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Oct 24 $20 +$16 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 64¢ $2,243 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 71¢ $2,551 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 100¢ $2,608 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 94¢ $2,459 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 44¢ $25 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 44¢ $352 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1,212 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2,891 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $85 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $141 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $18 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $23 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $113 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $300 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $104 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records