Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CB 0xcb28…3750 crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,869 (-20%) realized −$5,869 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%26W / 39L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,324
7 days−$1,324
14 days−$1,324
30 days−$1,324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$4,016
other 9% −$1,713
sports 5% −$68
politics 2% −$29
world 1% −$65
economics 1% −$129
finance 1% −$125
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 41% -22.5%
≤30d 32 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 41% -22.5%
≤90d 32 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 41% -22.5%
all 65 -10.4% -18.9% 40% 35% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 35% -28.4%
10% -26.7% 29% -35.3%
15% -33.8% 25% -41.5%
20% -40.3% 18% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$313 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,869
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses26 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage148d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $118 +$43 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $116 +$44 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $249 −$86 -35%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $536 +$29 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $1,250 −$738 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $900 +$168 +19%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $2,500 +$1,144 +46%
Transylvania Open: Emma Raducanu vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $131 +$48 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $73 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $147 +$108 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $86 +$237 +275%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$3 -54%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $41 −$2 -5%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$257 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $146 +$95 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$79 +302%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 06 $500 −$36 -7%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 06 $2,483 −$1,745 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 06 $500 +$49 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 06 $500 −$475 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 06 $1,000 +$257 +26%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 06 $1,120 +$228 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 06 $1,750 +$174 +10%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 06 $241 +$183 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 06 $500 +$102 +20%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 06 $400 +$338 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 06 $1,100 +$1,362 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 06 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 06 $2,872 −$2,872 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 06 $639 +$206 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 06 $25 +$19 +75%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 06 $26 −$1 -5%
Spread: Suns (-8.5) Feb 06 $333 −$333 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 06 $402 +$366 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records