Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb2a…3afc other 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-3%) realized −$16 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%34W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$25
sports 20% −$1
politics 8% −$20
weather 3% +$5
crypto 2% −$6
world 2% −$6
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 9 -88.9% -90.0% 0% 0% -84.5%
all 174 -18.9% -26.6% 20% 19% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 19% -14.5%
10% -33.6% 18% -22.7%
15% -40.0% 18% -30.1%
20% -45.9% 17% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses34 / 140
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)174 / 192
History coverage302d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+899%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Apr 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-22? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-21? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-21? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Feb 09 $5 +$12 +248%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-02? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia win on 2025-12-01? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-17? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2025-12-06? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Getafe win on 2025-12-06? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-01-21? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-20? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-17? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple release a new product line in 2025? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Perplexity acquire Chrome in 2025? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-20? Feb 09 $1 +$5 +456%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-18? Feb 09 $1 +$5 +456%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30? Jan 17 $1 +$2 +223%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $1 +$4 +426%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $1 +$5 +456%
Will George Russell finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Nov 29 $1 −$1 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Nov 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year? Nov 29 $1 +$2 +194%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 11 $14 +$16 +116%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-08? Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2025-11-08? Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 114d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 114d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 114d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? SELL Yes 80¢ $9 125d
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 125d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 125d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 125d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 125d
Will PSV win on 2026-01-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 148d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 148d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 148d
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 148d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 148d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 148d
Will Como 1907 win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 197d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.79 · official $27.79 (match) · 372 history records