Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb2b…1e44 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,175 (+35%) realized −$186 · open +$2,361
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate64%35W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4,862now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$128
14 days+$175
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$80
other 39% +$2,789
culture 9% −$441
crypto 7% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 41% -5.4%
≤30d 55 +5.7% -4.4% 64% 56% -8.0%
≤90d 55 +5.7% -4.4% 64% 56% -8.0%
all 55 +5.7% -4.4% 64% 56% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 56% -8.0%
10% -13.5% 45% -16.8%
15% -21.9% 38% -24.9%
20% -29.6% 31% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$60 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$4,862
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$2,361
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses35 / 20
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage20d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $500 $4,002 +$3,502 (+700%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $381 −$119 (-24%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $500 $267 −$233 (-47%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $502 $123 −$379 (-75%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $500 $89 −$411 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $170 −$10 -6%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 23 $112 −$45 -40%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $133 +$188 +142%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $167 −$162 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $153 +$136 +89%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $123 −$120 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $162 +$139 +86%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $123 −$120 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $218 +$70 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $57 −$55 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $177 +$85 +48%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $67 −$65 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $212 +$44 +21%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $32 −$31 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $202 −$154 -76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $62 −$60 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $101 +$31 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $184 +$221 +120%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$10 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $102 −$1 -1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $112 +$118 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $83 +$122 +147%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $82 −$66 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$13 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $38 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 40¢ $160 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Ronaldo 3¢ $0 7h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Ronaldo 3¢ $5 7h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 2¢ $2 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $170 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 78¢ $247 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 74¢ $73 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $167 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $133 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 55¢ $290 40h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $153 40h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $123 40h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $302 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $162 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $123 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $288 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $218 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $57 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $262 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $177 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $67 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $256 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $41 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $6 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $26 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $171 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $48 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $62 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,862.03 · official $4,865.57 (match) · 123 history records