Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcb2b…e828
sports · 107 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,067 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,062 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$612
Realized−$2,062
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses43 / 50
Est. fees paid−$326
Open positions14
Markets (closed)93 / 107
History coverage95d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 14 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$834
7 days−$834
14 days−$834
30 days−$834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Kansas City Royals 60¢ 60¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 52¢ 52¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ 48¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 55¢ 55¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 43¢ 44¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 53¢ 54¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 42¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ 32¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 51¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $244 −$244 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $244 −$244 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $82 −$3 -4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $82 +$71 +86%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $82 +$61 +75%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $82 +$55 +67%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 05 $61 +$53 +86%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 04 $244 −$244 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 04 $244 −$244 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals May 04 $244 −$244 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins May 04 $244 −$244 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 04 $244 −$244 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 04 $244 −$244 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics May 03 $244 +$251 +103%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 03 $243 +$189 +78%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 03 $244 +$259 +106%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 03 $244 +$252 +103%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 02 $244 +$205 +84%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals May 02 $183 −$183 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 02 $243 −$243 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins May 02 $244 −$244 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics May 02 $244 −$244 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 02 $244 −$244 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins May 02 $244 −$244 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 01 $244 +$240 +98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Apr 30 $243 +$165 +68%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 30 $243 +$169 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 30 $244 +$289 +118%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Apr 30 $243 +$190 +78%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 29 $244 +$246 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers Apr 28 $240 −$240 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Apr 28 $240 +$188 +78%
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 28 $240 +$236 +98%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 27 $240 −$240 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 26 $240 −$240 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 26 $240 −$240 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Apr 26 $240 −$240 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 25 $240 +$271 +113%
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 25 $240 −$240 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Apr 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 24 $240 +$242 +101%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Apr 24 $240 +$198 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$2,067
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $21 8m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $81 15m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 60¢ $81 15m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $81 16m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $14 25m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $21 28m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $21 28m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $21 28m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $21 35m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ $21 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $21 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $21 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 31¢ $21 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $21 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $21 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $21 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $21 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $21 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $81 8h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 48¢ $79 10h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 92¢ $38 15h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 93¢ $38 15h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 93¢ $38 15h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 93¢ $38 15h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $21 18h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $21 19h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $21 19h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 93¢ $36 20h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 93¢ $35 20h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 93¢ $36 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -48.0% -52.9% 25% 25% -65.5%
≤30d 12 -48.0% -52.9% 25% 25% -65.5%
≤90d 88 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 43% -19.8%
all 93 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 46% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 46% -19.5%
10% -26.4% 46% -27.2%
15% -33.5% 45% -34.2%
20% -40.1% 43% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.89 · official $611.89 (match) · 543 history records