Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CB 0xcb2c…c1d9 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$758 (-12%) realized −$758 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$194
7 days−$2,077
14 days−$2,398
30 days−$2,072
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$575
other 46% −$1,533
crypto 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +13.9% +3.1% 41% 41% -45.2%
≤30d 37 +20.8% +9.3% 41% 41% -41.6%
≤90d 37 +20.8% +9.3% 41% 41% -41.6%
all 37 +20.8% +9.3% 41% 41% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 41% -41.6%
10% -1.2% 35% -47.2%
15% -10.7% 35% -52.3%
20% -19.5% 32% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$163 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$758
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage15d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $150 −$120 -80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $338 −$24 -7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $307 −$300 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$25 +162%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$172 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$85 +413%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$18 +17%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$121 +237%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $203 +$24 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$15 -30%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $284 −$271 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $82 +$171 +209%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +56%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$71 +347%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$53 -86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 +$19 +185%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 +$168 +83%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $221 −$129 -58%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $156 −$152 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,509 −$1,501 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $53 +$60 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $369 +$167 +45%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $612 −$132 -22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $133 +$47 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $229 −$185 -81%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $133 +$326 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $30 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $150 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 34¢ $150 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $165 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $164 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $173 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $51 6h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 6h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 99¢ $40 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $476 6h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $15 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 10h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 33¢ $120 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 22h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $102 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 28h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 100¢ $130 45h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $101 46h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 24¢ $98 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 22¢ $36 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 2d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $102 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records