trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 32¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-14%) |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? | May 27 | $10 | +$9 | +93% |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? | May 21 | $10 | +$7 | +67% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 20 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | May 09 | $20 | +$97 | +484% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Apr 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Apr 02 | $10 | +$5 | +47% |
| Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Feb 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 28 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 28 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jan 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +20.2% | +8.8% | 67% | 67% | +9.3% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +82.0% | +64.6% | 67% | 67% | +133.0% |
| all | 10 | +9.2% | -1.2% | 40% | 40% | +46.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.2% | 40% | +46.0% |
| 10% | -10.7% | 40% | +32.0% |
| 15% | -19.3% | 40% | +19.3% |
| 20% | -27.2% | 30% | +7.6% |