Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb2f…6fe7 crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$176 (-20%) realized −$225 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$13
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$59
sports 25% −$187
crypto 19% −$26
finance 4% −$12
culture 2% −$15
politics 2% −$15
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -16.4% -24.3% 46% 38% -18.2%
≤30d 17 +57.0% +42.1% 47% 41% -7.0%
≤90d 56 +3.0% -6.8% 41% 36% -43.2%
all 56 +3.0% -6.8% 41% 36% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 36% -43.2%
10% -15.7% 30% -48.6%
15% -23.8% 29% -53.6%
20% -31.3% 29% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)56 / 63
History coverage74d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $50 $117 +$67 (+134%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+43%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $35 −$15 (-29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $50 −$16 -32%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -99%
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 23 $2 $0 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi Jun 23 $2 $0 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$12 +140%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$10 +67%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 23 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $3 +$12 +388%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 10 $1 +$2 +166%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $9 +$1 +11%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 +$4 +76%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 21 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 21 $21 +$14 +68%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $190 −$171 -90%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 17 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 17 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during N Apr 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Great Big Beautiful Bill" during No Tax on Tips Roundt Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 17 $6 +$9 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 17 $3 +$3 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 17 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Trump say "Tax" 10+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $34 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 26h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 30h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 4d
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic SELL Radu Albot 79¢ $3 5d
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Radu Albot 73¢ $2 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi SELL Katarzyna Kawa 100¢ $2 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi BUY Katarzyna Kawa 84¢ $2 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $4 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 11d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 60¢ $14 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 17d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 46d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $3 49d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 32¢ $3 49d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 67d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 67d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 67d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 67d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 67d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 67d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.76 · official $318.76 (match) · 181 history records