Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcb33…6157 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$8
other 33% −$4
economics 13% −$1
world 13% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 7 -13.4% -21.7% 86% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 7 -13.4% -21.7% 86% 0% -8.6%
all 25 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage249d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 November 10-16? Nov 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 11? Nov 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 10? Nov 11 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 9? Nov 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 2? Nov 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 20-26? Nov 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pascal Affi N'Guessan win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential elect Oct 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Oct 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 17 $1,340 −$1 -0%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? Oct 17 $673 −$3 -0%
Will Trump visit Gaza by Oct 31? Oct 16 $677 −$4 -1%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on October 16? Oct 16 $684 −$7 -1%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025? Oct 16 $688 −$4 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 16 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 16 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 8d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 17d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 November 10-16? BUY No 98¢ $8 218d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 11? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 220d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 221d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 10? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 221d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 222d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 3? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 228d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 229d
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $19 241d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? SELL No 100¢ $19 241d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $19 243d
Will Pascal Affi N'Guessan win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $19 243d
Will Pascal Affi N'Guessan win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential elect BUY No 100¢ $19 243d
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $19 244d
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $19 244d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? SELL No 99¢ $19 244d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? SELL No 100¢ $669 245d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $670 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.67 · official $49.67 (match) · 61 history records