Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:28:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CB
0xcb36…deaf
other · 45 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$106 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$106 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage592d
Avg bet$383
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $32 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $39 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $40 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$5 +70%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $8 +$2 +29%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $48 +$1 +3%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 156.5 Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $90 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $13,522 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $9 $0 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $291 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $889 −$4 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,015 −$4 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $530 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 79% −$14
politics 17% −$10
other 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$84
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $4 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 26d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $29 26d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $32 27d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 27d
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $9 34d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -25.0% -32.2% 16% 6% -20.9%
all 44 -18.3% -26.1% 18% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 5% -10.1%
10% -33.2% 5% -18.7%
15% -39.6% 2% -26.5%
20% -45.6% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.78 · official $9.78 (match) · 229 history records