Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb36…8988 crypto 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$51,532 (-68%) realized −$51,532 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate82%108W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$571per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$30,716
other 31% −$14,321
finance 15% −$361
tech 9% −$6,143
weather 0% −$21
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 62 -10.8% -19.3% 87% 0% -61.4%
all 131 +1.9% -7.8% 82% 2% -72.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 2% -72.2%
10% -16.6% 2% -74.9%
15% -24.7% 2% -77.3%
20% -32.1% 2% -79.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$2,493 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$51,532
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses108 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage200d
Avg bet$571
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 75¢ 75¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 23? Jun 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 23? Jun 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 23? Jun 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 23? Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 11? May 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 11? May 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 30? May 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 23? Apr 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 19? Apr 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 1 Apr 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 19? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 19? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 19? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 18? Apr 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 12? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 6-12? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 12? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will there be fewer than 3 major space weather events this week? Apr 12 $1,842 −$481 -26%
Will Justin Bieber feature Lil Wayne during his Coachella performances Apr 12 $3,047 −$2,409 -79%
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 202 Apr 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 3 Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $20 36d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $3 36d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $6 36d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $2 36d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $7 48d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 11? BUY No 99¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 11? BUY No 96¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 11? BUY No 96¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 11? BUY No 95¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 59d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 23? BUY No 99¢ $22 67d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $9 71d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $1 71d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 1 BUY No 99¢ $1 71d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 71d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 71d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $3 71d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 71d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 71d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 71d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 71d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.53 · official $30.53 (match) · 278 history records