Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb39…63a7 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$338 (+1%) realized +$350 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate98%58W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$89
economics 14% +$193
other 11% +$15
finance 5% −$9
tech 4% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 4 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 59 +1.1% -8.5% 98% 7% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 7% -8.5%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.2%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$687) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$34 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.88 per $1 lost it wins $10.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$745
Realized+$350
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses58 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage252d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $449 $449 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $157 $157 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $10 in July? No 99¢ 91¢ $151 $139 −$13 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 2 England? Jun 27 $288 +$2 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Jun 26 $308 +$3 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 22 $444 +$5 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $148 +$6 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $596 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $595 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 04 $147 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 04 $445 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 27 $443 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 20 $589 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $142 +$6 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 06 $69 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 31 $518 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 28 $587 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 25 $704 +$25 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 20 $704 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $997 +$5 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in February? Mar 02 $700 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 26 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 25 $364 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 25 $299 +$3 +1%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 20 $66 −$34 -52%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Feb 18 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Feb 13 $356 +$8 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $476 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Feb 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Feb 06 $189 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? Feb 06 $41 +$6 +13%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February? Feb 06 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Feb 02 $762 +$2 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1,067 +$143 +13%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 02 $52 +$15 +28%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Dec 26 $50 +$2 +3%
Solana all time high before 2026? Dec 25 $144 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $396 +$4 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 24 $549 +$23 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $356 +$40 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 29 $494 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Nov 25 $539 +$11 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 21 $99 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 21 $99 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 21 $336 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 3-9? Nov 10 $277 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 3-9? Nov 10 $1,248 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9? Nov 09 $2,259 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 07 $310 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 3-9? Nov 07 $475 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 5? Nov 05 $1,518 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on November 4? Nov 05 $1,516 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,900 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $711 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $10 in July? BUY No 99¢ $84 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $10 in July? BUY No 99¢ $67 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 97¢ $134 1h
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 2 England? BUY No 99¢ $288 19h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 96¢ $22 19h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $311 43h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $449 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $449 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $308 26d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $444 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 100¢ $597 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $596 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $597 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $595 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $445 60d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $445 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $443 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $443 68d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 96¢ $148 71d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 99¢ $148 73d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $147 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $147 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $589 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $519 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $518 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $69 89d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $588 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $587 94d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 95¢ $142 94d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 100¢ $350 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $744.53 · official $744.54 (match) · 179 history records