Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcb3a…d3e3 weather 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$503 (+2%) realized +$501 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate88%207W / 27L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$159
14 days−$35
30 days+$397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$628
sports 3% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +2.5% -7.2% 96% 6% -7.1%
≤30d 234 +1.0% -8.6% 88% 11% -8.2%
≤90d 234 +1.0% -8.6% 88% 11% -8.2%
all 234 +1.0% -8.6% 88% 11% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 11% -8.2%
10% -17.3% 6% -17.0%
15% -25.3% 5% -25.0%
20% -32.6% 4% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$46 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$501
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses207 / 27
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)234 / 236
History coverage28d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $83 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 18 $99 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $496 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Jun 18 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 18 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$31 +122%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 17 $790 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 17 $98 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $198 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $197 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $73 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $197 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $198 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 16 $198 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $200 −$15 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 83°F or below on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $126 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $197 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $198 +$34 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $260 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $98 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 11 $99 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $156 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $496 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $57 5h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 7h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $83 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $99 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $75 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $24 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $797 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $790 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 100¢ $38 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $94 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $99 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $34 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $98 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $99 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $99 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $99 32h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $202 32h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $213 32h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 33h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 33h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 33h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $98 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $6 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.44 · official $122.44 (match) · 571 history records