Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb3a…3617 crypto 1261 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (243 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$815 (-10%) realized −$815 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%624W / 598L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day243.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,978
7 days−$1,610
14 days−$1,516
30 days−$1,516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$790
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (243 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 862 -0.4% -9.9% 52% 51% -35.7%
≤30d 1222 +0.8% -8.8% 51% 50% -23.2%
≤90d 1222 +0.8% -8.8% 51% 50% -23.2%
all 1222 +0.8% -8.8% 51% 50% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover243.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 50% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 48% -30.6%
15% -25.5% 47% -37.3%
20% -32.8% 46% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$815
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses624 / 598
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1222 / 1261
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day243.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 40¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$23 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$5 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$10 -142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$6 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$9 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.52 · official $1.52 (match) · 3500 history records