Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb3b…fba8 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-29%) realized −$35 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$24
finance 25% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -36.9% -42.9% 33% 27% -48.4%
≤30d 15 -36.9% -42.9% 33% 27% -48.4%
≤90d 15 -36.9% -42.9% 33% 27% -48.4%
all 15 -36.9% -42.9% 33% 27% -48.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 27% -48.4%
10% -48.4% 27% -53.4%
15% -53.4% 27% -57.9%
20% -58.0% 27% -62.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 33¢ 52¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+59%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 15 $25 −$19 -77%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL No 5¢ $3 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 5¢ $3 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.53 · official $7.54 (match) · 28 history records