Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb3b…fc79 crypto 752 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$271 (-2%) realized −$271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%736W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$18
14 days+$65
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$22
finance 6% −$14
other 5% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +1.0% -8.7% 99% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 370 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 753 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -10.0%
all 753 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$24 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses736 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)753 / 752
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 753 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on February 17? Jun 29 $0 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $30 +$3 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $18 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $9 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $18 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $18 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $18 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $7 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 90¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $17 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $18 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.03 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records