Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb3d…e9d3 crypto 1612 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$203 (+2%) realized +$208 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%634W / 1337L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,358
7 days−$1,238
14 days−$1,239
30 days−$1,357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 575 -62.7% -66.3% 16% 16% -52.3%
≤30d 945 -40.7% -46.4% 22% 20% -34.3%
≤90d 1971 -19.4% -27.0% 32% 28% -19.0%
all 1971 -19.4% -27.0% 32% 28% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 28% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 27% -26.7%
15% -40.4% 27% -33.8%
20% -46.2% 26% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$208
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses634 / 1337
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1971 / 1612
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1971 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 54¢ 4¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1126%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1144%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1105%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1125%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$8 -1116%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -1105%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$7 -1105%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $2.60 · 3500 history records