Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb3e…887e world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$2
other 8% +$1
finance 7% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
tech 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.4% -11.7% 38% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 13 -10.0% -18.5% 31% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 16 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 0% -9.9%
all 39 -6.4% -15.3% 49% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 5% -9.7%
10% -23.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage455d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $33 −$3 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $52 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $48 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $6 $0 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $45 +$4 +10%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Dec 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Dec 15 $1 $0 +37%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 26 $7 +$1 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 16 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $7 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 18–25? Apr 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 18? Apr 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 24 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $48 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 98¢ $50 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $46 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $37 23h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 30h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 30h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $26 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $3 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $14 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $2 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $7 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $23 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $24 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $26 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $20 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records